The Sixers entered this season laser-focused on the playoffs, but they apparently forgot that they first have to win enough games to get into the playoffs.
At media day this past fall, team president Daryl Morey said the Sixers were “going to be really smart” about how they managed Joel Embiid throughout the regular season, as they were more concerned with “April, May, June” (aka, the playoffs). He later told ESPN’s Tim Bontemps that the Sixers would try to avoid having Embiid and Paul George playing in “many back-to-backs, if any.”
That about-face was widely praised at the time—including by yours truly here!—but there was one problem with the Sixers’ big-picture focus on the playoffs: They still needed to win enough games to make it there in the first place.
Halfway through the 2024-25 season, they’re falling short in that regard. After Wednesday’s loss to the New York Knicks, the Sixers are now 15-24 and sit 11th in the Eastern Conference. They’re only two games behind the Chicago Bulls for the final spot in the East play-in tournament, but they’re already 5.5 games behind the ninth-seeded Atlanta Hawks. It’s increasingly looking like their best-case scenario is two road play-in games for the chance to get annihilated by the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs.
Injuries have submarined any chance the Sixers had of living up to their preseason hype. Through 39 games, Embiid, George and Tyrese Maxey have shared the court for a grand total of 192 minutes. That’s basically one week’s worth of games for the New York Knicks’ starting lineup.
Most of the Sixers’ key injuries have been fluky. George suffered two bone bruises in his left knee early in the year, which he recently admitted is still bothering him. Maxey suffered a hamstring strain in early November as he desperately tried to keep the team afloat sans George and Embiid. And Embiid suffered a facial fracture (again!) and a sprained foot that has sidelined him for the past two weeks.
The New Orleans Pelicans have likewise been ravaged by injuries this year and are also scuffling through what appears to be a lost season. Not every team can be the Orlando Magic, who’ve remarkably stayed afloat despite injuries to Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs. A cascade of ailments tends to wipe out at least one or two teams every year—see: the 2019-20 Golden State Warriors or the 2023-24 Memphis Grizzlies. It might have just been the Sixers’ turn on the injury carousel.
Then again, the downside of the Sixers’ three-star build was fairly predictable.
Given the draconian nature of the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement, teams across the league began cutting costs this past offseason, even if the moves didn’t make on-court sense. George was the first star of his caliber to walk in free agency since 2019. (Jalen Brunson didn’t rise to that level until after arriving in New York.) The Minnesota Timberwolves, fresh off a Western Conference Finals appearance, traded Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo for more financial flexibility. (Granted, they might like a re-do on that one.) The Golden State Warriors allowed franchise legend Klay Thompson to walk in free agency as well.
The Sixers had a unique opportunity to pounce in free agency this offseason thanks to their strategic maneuvering with Maxey’s extension. That enabled them to sign George to a four-year, $211.6 million max contract in free agency, although that decision didn’t come without risk. The Sixers managed to retain Kelly Oubre Jr. while signing Caleb Martin and Andre Drummond as well, but they were limited to minimum contracts from there. Their misses in that regard (Reggie Jackson, Eric Gordon, Kyle Lowry) have far outweighed their hit rate (Guerschon Yabusele) thus far.
Once the Sixers committed to a Big 3 model, their free-agent options were relatively limited. However, if they went into the season planning to sit Embiid and George in back-to-backs, that means they knew they’d have at least roughly 30 games without one member of their Big 3. That’s not even accounting for injuries, just pre-planned rest.
Prioritizing Drummond as a backup for Embiid made sense. He’s better off in a low-minute role, but he’s able to fill in as a starter whenever Embiid misses time. However, second-round pick Adem Bona is the only other big man on the roster. If the Sixers were already planning to sit Embiid for roughly 15 games—not counting those he’d miss due to injury—that means they’d have to either rely on the Drummond/Bona duo or lean into small-ball on the nights he missed.
In theory, it’s easy to see why the Sixers targeted Gordon, Jackson and Lowry on minimum deals as well. All three are proven veterans with plenty of playoff experience. The Sixers wanted to put them in low-usage, complementary roles alongside the Big 3, where all they’d have to do is space the floor and knock down open shots on offense.
However, Lowry is turning 39 in March. Gordon just turned 36 on Christmas Day. Jackson will be 34 in April. All three are well past their primes. They’re no longer able to effectively scale up into larger roles in games where Embiid, Maxey or George are sidelined. Jared McCain, who was expected to be on the fringes of the rotation as a rookie, ran circles around all three prior to his meniscus injury.
The Sixers built their roster with the playoffs in mind. They wanted to surround their high-end talent of Embiid, George and Maxey with players who have complementary skill sets. Caleb Martin makes perfect sense as a low-usage three-and-D wing next to that trio. Relying on him to shoulder more of an offensive creation load in short-handed games is asking for trouble, though.
Morey knew the risks of pursing a top-heavy build heading into the offseason, but he brushed them off at the time.
“Again, I would reframe it as, ‘Compared to what?’” he told reporters in May. “And in those situations, I like having the challenge, finding the guys that are overlooked—the Kelly Oubres of the world. Getting a Kyle Lowry. Guys like that. I like that challenge. I think that’s something that the front office is very good at. So I think, yeah, compared to … basically you’re like, ‘Have less good players, but more role players.’ I think generally, the history of the NBA would favor—even with the new CBA—get studs who you can then put the work and the onus on the front office to find the players that fit around (them).”
The Sixers hit two home runs in that regard with McCain and Yabusele (although it may be difficult for them to keep Yabusele past this season). However, they otherwise went from a deep, rangy, athletic team to a squad with too many holes to count in the span of a year.
It’s still premature to begin the where-do-they-go-from-here postmortems. For all we know, Embiid will manage to stay healthy over the second half of the season, and maybe they’ll be the vaunted No. 10 seed that no team wants to face in the playoffs. However, that’s a fair question to have rattling in the back of your brain as they stumble their way through this disasterclass of a season. There already seems to be no easy way out of this mess, particularly if their hubris continues to blind them moving forward.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Salary Swish and salary-cap information via RealGM.